MEMPREDIKSI PERUSAHAAN YANG BERPOTENSI MENGALAMI MASALAH KEUANGAN DENGAN MODEL ALTMAN, SPRINGATE, DAN ZMIJEWSKI (Studi pada Perusahaan Ritel yang Terdaftar di BEI Periode Tahun 2012-2016)
Abstract: National retail
sales in the period of January-June 2017 experienced a slowdown compared to the
same period the previous year (YoY). Nielsen Retail Audit data show that
national retail sales in the first half of this year only grew 3.7 percent from
10.2 percent. This study purpose to find out the prediction model of Financial
Distress that is most suitable for its application in Retail companies in
Indonesia. This study compares three models of financial distress prediction
there are the model of Altman,
Springate, and Zmijewski by analyzing the accuracy of each model. The model
with the highest accuracy is used to predict Retail companies that will
experience financial distress in the future.
The research data is taken from the financial statements of Retail
companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2012-2016.
The samples used in this study as many as 12 companies by using purposive
sampling technique. The method of analysis used is logistic regression.
The results showed
if the Altman
and Zmijewski models
can be used
to predict financial distress in
Retail companies. The most accurate model is the Zmijewski model. At the end of
the research model Zmijewski used to predict 12 companies Retail listed on the
IDX period 2016.
The prediction results show
that three companies are
predicted to experience financial
distress in the future.
Keywords: Financial Distress,
Altman Model, Springate Model, Zmijewski Model, Financial Statement, Retail
Penulis: Devy Nilasari, Mulyo
Haryanto
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd180411
