Simulation on the Spreading of Infectious Disease HIV/AIDS in Central Java Using SIR Epidemic Model (Susceptible, Infected, Removed)
Abstract: HIV/AIDS is an
infectious disease threating human health all over the world. Central Java
Province ranks as 6th in terms of the most HIV/AIDS cases in Indonesia. A
precise disease control is needed to monitor the spreading of disease
infection. A mathematical model which works based on the changing from
susceptible into the infected population is needed. In this research, SIR
(Susceptible, Infected, Removed) model is used to empirically understand of HIV
dispersion cases and HIV/AIDS endemicity in Central Java. The demographic data
and the number of HIV/AIDS cases in 2010 to 2014 are used as the dataset. The
result shows that HIV/AIDS infection model in Central Java is y=0.6e^-0.125x,
where y is the number of infectious and x is the spreading time. The result
shows the average data test error is 13%, and
the potential endemic regions having R0>1 are Cilacap Regency and
Semarang City respectively.
Penulis: Ely Desyanawati,
Sarngadi Palgunadi, Hasan Dwi Cahyono
Kode Jurnal: jptinformatikadd160510
