RANCANG BANGUN APLIKASI PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE IMPROVED ELMAN (Studi Kasus: UD DWI MULYA PLASTIK SIDOARJO)
Abstract: UD Dwi Mulya Plastik
is a company that produces plastic ore based house appliances. The expanding
marketing area and the uncertainty of demand orders bucket cast make UD. Dwi Mulya
lastik Sidoarjo often face problems in meeting customer demand. This company
often facesproblems in terms of availability of bucket cast product to meet
customer demand. It often causesdisappoinment to the company’s customers. If
this is ignored, then the company will lose customers. The company is only able
to provide 75% of the total booking request. Based on theresults of testing and
evaluation, it is discovered that the aplication is able to provide the bucketcast
demand forecasting with learning rate of 0,40, the number of input data 12, and
the value ofMAPE is 10,83%. Total forecasting results using the aplications is
194.310, while the actual totaldemand data is 187.100. For forecasting result
which is conducted from March 2013 to August 2013, the actual data and the
forecasting data is relatively similar and have the same trend, whilein the
last 2 monts, the trend and patterns are significantly different. So, it can be
concluded that application using this method is able to forecast demand data
bucket, with the different value ofMSE 10773101,25 and the level of accuracy
10,13% to forecast 1 period ahead.
Penulis: Chrisyanti Simbolon
Kode Jurnal: jptinformatikadd160713
