A train dispatching model based on fuzzy passenger demand forecasting during holidays
Abstract: Purpose: The train
dispatching is a crucial issue in the train operation adjustment when passenger
flow outbursts. During holidays, the train dispatching is to meet passenger
demand to the greatest extent, and ensure safety, speediness and punctuality of
the train operation. In this paper, a fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model
is put up, then a train dispatching optimization model is established based on
passenger demand so as to evacuate stranded passengers effectively during
holidays.
Design/methodology/approach: First, the complex features and regularity
of passenger flow during holidays are analyzed, and then a fuzzy passenger
demand forecasting model is put forward based on the fuzzy set theory and time
series theory. Next, the bi-objective of the train dispatching optimization
model is to minimize the total operation cost of the train dispatching and
unserved passenger volume during holidays. Finally, the validity of this model
is illustrated with a case concerned with the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed
railway in China.
Findings: The case study shows that the fuzzy passenger demand
forecasting model can predict outcomes more precisely than ARIMA model. Thus
train dispatching optimization plan proves that a small number of trains are
able to serve unserved passengers reasonably and effectively.
Originality/value: On the basis of the passenger demand predictive
values, the train dispatching optimization model is established, which enables
train dispatching to meet passenger demand in condition that passenger flow
outbursts, so as to maximize passenger demand by offering the optimal operation
plan.
Keywords: railway
transportation, passenger demand forecasting, train dispatching, fuzzy logical
relationships, optimization model
Author: Fei Dou Dou, Jie Xu,
Li Wang, Limin Jia
Journal Code: jptindustrigg130076
