EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH PADA HARGA IMPOR: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA, THAILAND, DAN SINGAPURA
Abstract: This research paper
is aimed to analyze the exchange rate pass-through in three South East Asian
Countries namely Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. By employing time series
model with quarterly data in the period of 1990-2000, it is found that in the
long run in those three cases, the exchange rate pass-through toward import
prices prevails. It is shown that there is a positive relationship between the
indexes of import price and the relative value of local currency toward US
Dollar as predicted by the theory. However,in the short run, there is a
difference in the context of response of indexes of import price to movement in
exchange rates. In the case of Indonesia and Thailand, the short run estimates
show the existence of incomplete pass-through, whereas in the case of Singapore,
the estimates figures show that there is no significant evidence of
pass-through. This finding might be due
to the ability of domestic economy in
finding substitutes when there is a depreciation of domestic currency,
vice versa. Moreover, the demand pressure in local market and marginal cost,
especially with concern to transportation cost, faced by industry also could be
other factors that influence the existence of exchange rate pass-through.
Penulis: Margaretta Unggul
Heriqbaldi
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd080064
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