Use of a combined surveillance and meteorological data for predicting dengue hemorrhagic fever in Yogyakarta
Abstract: This study aims to
predict the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using meteorological data
such as rainfall, rainy days, air temperature,humidity, and dengue hemorrhagic
fever surveillance data by month inNorthern Yogyakarta Municipality (Climatic
Zone 138) through 2010-2016.Method: It was descriptive research used a
predictive design with temporalapproach. This research processed secondary data
of DHF incidence fromYogyakarta Municipality Health Office and climate variable
from MeteorologyClimatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Yogyakarta from 2010
to 2016.Data were analyzed univariat and presented in frequency distribution,bivariate
analysis was performed using correlation (Pearson/ Spearman), andmultivariate
analysis to get prediction model was done using Poisson regression, negative
binomial regression, and generalized poisson regression.Results: DHF incidence
in Northern Yogyakarta Municipality (Climatic Zone138) was associated with
meteorological factors in the same month up to 3 months earlier. Predictors of
DHF case were dengue incidence of previousmonth, rainfall 2 months earlier,
current temperature, and relative humidityof the previous month. Conclusion:
The best prediction model of DHF incidence in Northern Yogyakarta Municipality
(Climatic Zone 138) was acombination of surveillance and meteorological data.
It was necessary to develop an awareness system of DHF incidence with
meteorologicaldatabase and surveillance in order to control the incidence of
DHF inYogyakarta Municipality.
Keywords: dengue;
prediction; meteorological data; climatic zone
Penulis: Dedik Sulistiawan
& Lutfan Lazuardi
Kode Jurnal: jpkedokterandd180025
