Evaluasi Keandalan Perencanaan Pembangkit Wilayah Jawa-Bali dengan Mempertimbangkan Ketidakpastian Peramalan Beban
Abstract: Power system
reliability is one of important aspects of power system operation. Lack of
capacity in the generation system will affect reliability level of the power
system. System evaluation needs to be done to know whether the system is still
reliable to supply the load that is projected to increase 8.2% per year.
Java-Bali system evaluation planning period 2015-2024 is conducted in this
paper. Load forecast uncertainty (LFU) is one of the parameters that needs to
be considered when conducting system planning. It is because load tends to be
uncertain. This research uses two scenarios: without and with load forecast
uncertainty. Reliability indexes LOLE and LOLP are used to evaluate the
Java-Bali system. All calculations are based on a program using MATLAB. The
result shows that reliability indexes LOLE and LOLP are higher with considering
LFU. It means reliability decreases, rather than planning without considering
LFU. Moreover, Java-Bali system reliability indexes meet the PLN’s standard
value with the best value acquired in 2019.
Penulis: Avrin Nur Widiastuti,
Sarjiya Sarjiya, Kukuh Arung Pinanditho, Eko Tri Prastyo
Kode Jurnal: jptlisetrodd170483
