Research on industrialization of electric vehicles with its demand forecast using exponential smoothing method
Abstract: Electric vehicles
industry has gotten a rapid development in the world, especially in the
developed countries, but still has a gap among different countries or regions.
The advanced industrialization experiences of the EVs in the developed
countries will have a great helpful for the development of EVs
industrialization in the developing countries. This paper seeks to research the
industrialization path & prospect of American EVs by forecasting electric
vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole car sales based on the
historical 37 EVs monthly sales and Cars monthly sales spanning from Dec. 2010
to Dec. 2013, and find out the key measurements to help Chinese government and
automobile enterprises to promote Chinese EVs industrialization.
Design/methodology: Compared with Single Exponential Smoothing method and
Double Exponential Smoothing method, Triple exponential smoothing method is
improved and applied in this study.
Findings: The research results show that:
American EVs industry will keep a sustained growth in the next 3
months. Price of the EVs, price of
fossil oil, number of charging station, EVs technology and the government
market & taxation polices have a different influence to EVs sales. So EVs
manufacturers and policy-makers can adjust or reformulate some technology
tactics and market measurements according to the forecast results. China can
learn from American EVs polices and measurements to develop Chinese EVs
industry.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is to use the triple
exponential smoothing method to forecast the electric vehicles demand and its
proportion to the whole automobile sales, and analyze the industrial
development of Chinese electric vehicles by American EVs industry.
Author: Zhanglin Peng, Zhijun
Yu, Hongbo Wang, Shanlin Yang
Journal Code: jptindustrigg150023
