Computing voter transitions: The elections for the Catalan Parliament, from 2010 to 2012
Abstract: To estimate the transition
rates corresponding to the 2010 and 2012 elections to the Catalan Parliament
for the four constituencies in which Catalonia is divided for this purpose. The
main features of the results, which are obtained by means of mathematical
programming, are commented.
Design/methodology/approach: Mathematical programming optimization models
are formulated in order to find the transition rates that yield a better adjust
between the actual results in 2012 and those computed applying the transition
rates to the 2010 results. The transition rate matrices are estimated for each
one of the four constituencies, since the set of options is not the same for
all them. No other assumptions that those of numerical consistency are adopted.
Findings: The transition rate models provide satisfactory goodness of
fit. Mathematical programming turns out to be an easy-to-use tool for
estimating the transition rates and, at the same time, very flexible, since, if
necessary, it allows incorporating the constraints corresponding to additional
assumptions.
Originality/value: The transition rates from 2010 to 2012 in Catalonia
are particularly interesting, since 2012 results implied a significant change
in the composition of the Catalan Parliament. To the best of our knowledge, no
other scientific journal paper has dealt with this question. Our results are
available to the researchers in order to interpret the change and try to
foresee future flows of voters.
Author: Albert Corominas,
Amaia Lusa, M. Dolors Calvet
Journal Code: jptindustrigg150016
