HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL APPLICATION TO TRANSFER THE TRADER ONLINE FOREX BROKERS
ABSTRACT: Hidden Markov Model
is elaboration of Markov chain, which is applicable to cases that can’t
directly observe. In this research, Hidden Markov Model is used to know
trader’s transition to broker forex online. In Hidden Markov Model, observed
state is observable part and hidden state is hidden part. Hidden Markov Model
allows modeling system that contains interrelated observed state and hidden
state. As observed state in trader’s transition to broker forex online is
category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of
every broker forex online, whereas as hidden state is broker forex onlineMarketiva,
Masterforex, Instaforex, FBS and Others. First step on application of Hidden
Markov Model in this research is making construction model, by making a
probability of transition matrix (A) fromevery broker forex online. Next step
is making a probability of observation matrix (B) by making conditional probability
of five categories, that is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4,
category 5 by condition of every broker forex online and also need to determine
an initial state probability (π) from every broker forex online. The last step
is using Viterbi algorithm to find hidden state sequences that is broker forex
online sequences which is the most possible based on model , and observed
state that is the five categories. Application of Hidden Markov Model is done
by making program with Viterbi algorithm using Delphi 7.0 software with
observed state based on simulation data. Example: By the number of observation
T = 5 and observed state sequences O = (2,4,3,5,1) is found hidden state
sequences which the most possible with observed state O as following : Masterforex,
X3 = Marketiva, X4 = Others, and X5 = Instaforex.
Author: Farida Suharleni, Agus
Widodo, Endang Wahyu H
Journal Code: jpmatematikagg120014
