Analisis Kejadian Gempa Bumi Tektonik di Wilayah Pulau Sumatera
Abstract: The purpose of this
study to get an overview of the earthquakes in Sumatra. The method used is
descriptive statistics and models Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving
Average (ARFIMA). The result from analysis data yielded a mathematical model to
predict the amount of tectonic earthquakes that occur every month in Sumatra is
ARFIMA (4,0.350,3) with a value of RMSE is 0,040??. While the best model for
the average magnitude of the many tectonic earthquakes that occur every month
in Sumatra is ARFIMA (1,0.310,3) with a value of RMSE is 0.013. Based on the
model results obtained forecast frequency earthquake and the average magnitude
for the three periods ahead, namely the first period 21 times with an average
magnitude is 4,91 SR , the second period will occur 14 times with an average
magnitude is 4.94 SR and the third period will occur 20 times with an average
magnitude is 4,96 SR.
Penulis: Jose Rizal, Sigit
Nugroho, Adi Irwanto,Debora
Kode Jurnal: jpmatematikadd160261