A TRAVELING PULSE BEHAVIOR OF THE SPREAD OF THE AVIAN FLU VIRUSES AMONG FLOCK AND HUMAN
Abstract: We propose two
disease transmission models: the SI model with difiusive terms as a model for
transmission of avian influenza viruses among flock with constant population
density, and the host-vector SI model with difiusive terms for transmission
among flock and human. There is a threshold number that determine whether the
diseases become epidemic or not. It depends on three parameters: the average
length of the infective period, the contact parameter, and the density of susceptible
population at the initial time. With difiusive terms in the model, thespatial
spread of the infection is obvious. Threshold number greater than one is also
the necessary condition for the spreading of infection in the form of a
traveling pulse. Its minimum velocity can be determined. We implement the
MacCormack method, and simulate the generation of a traveling pulse starting
from one infected bird. Numerically, we obtain the percentage of survival in
flock and human after the epidemic. We also simulate the minimal portion of
immunization in order to prevent further spread.
Author: S.R. Pudjaprasetya and
A.Y. Gunawan
Journal Code: jpmatematikagg100007
