MENENTUKAN PELUANG DAN PERIODE ULANG GEMPA DENGAN MAGNITUDE TERTENTU BERDASARKAN MODEL GUTTENBERG - RITCHER
Abstrak: A simple model of
earthquake prediction can be constructed based on Magnitude and cumulative
frequenty relation by Guttenberg - Richter equation. It is carried out a
probability determinated simulation and quake repetition period with a certain
magnitude to examine the model. Executing the model to 204 earthquakes data
with > 5 RS of magnitude and > 100 km hypocentre which occured in January
1910 to January 2010 in West Java region at 60 – 80 N and 1050 – 1090 W, shown
that the earthquake with low magnitude has shorter repetition period and bigger
probability to occur. On the other hand the earthquake with higher magnitude
has longer repetition period and has small probability to occur. By conducting
the model test, it is obtained the seismicity index, a = 9,46 and the rock
resistance, b = 1.265, which is showing the resistance of that region to a
quake. The highest repetition periods (100 years) = 99,9% is in 3rdarea with 19
year and seismicity index for highest quake is 1.38.
Penulis: Tati Zera
Kode Jurnal: jpfisikadd140795
