Rancang Bangun Aplikasi Peramalan Permintaan Produk dengan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Winter pada De Sam’s Bakery & Donuts
Abstract: De
Sam's Bakery &
Donuts is one
of the companies
engaged in the
industrial production of bread
which is located on the road Rungkut Madya 15. The problem that occurs is when
the customer selects the desired type of cake, but the prod uct is not enough.
This can lead to customer
disappointment to the
company, even the
company can be left by customers
resulting company lost profits.
This happens because so far in
determining demand, the company has not used the method only based on estimates.
Solutions offered to
correct the problem
is to use the company's
forecasting method can predict product demand for a specific period.
Forecasting used method Exponential Smoothing forecasting Winter, because
based on autocorrelation analysis
using Minitab 14,
it is known
that the data pattern of demand is seasonal and there
is a tendency to trend. Based on trial
results, this study
resulted in product
demand forecasting applications
using Exponential Smoothing Methods
Winter. Applications can
predict product demand
for the next three
periods based on the data demand of the product in the previous period.
Based on the test results obtained by the results of 83.4% so that the
application of forecasting demand for products included in the category of
very feasible to be used.
Penulis: Dimas Bandung
Prasetyo, Sulistiowati, Pantjawati Sudarmaningtyas
Kode Jurnal: jptkomputerdd150140
