Are the Experts Really Experts? A Cognitive Ergonomics Investigation for Project Estimations
Abstract: Uniqueness is a
major characteristic of any project systems. Hence it is virtually in-feasible
for project analysts to utilize data from past projects as references for
subsequent project planning and scheduling. Most project analysts would then
depend on intuition, gut feeling and experiences to develop quantitative models
for project scheduling and analysis which, according to past studies, is prone
towards systematic errors. This study attempts to investigate the performance
of both ‘experts’ and ‘non-experts’ when utilizing their cognitive capability
to estimate project durations in
group/non-group settings. A
cognitive ergonomics perspective
-which views human capability to
make judgment as rationally bounded - is utilized in this investigation. An empirical
approach is used to inquiry data from ‘projects’ on which ‘experts’ and
‘non-experts’ are required to provide prior estimate on project durations. The
estimates are then gauged against the actual duration. Results show that some
systematic cognitive judgmental errors (biases) are observable for both experts
and non-experts. The identified biases include: anchoring bias as well as
accuracy bias.
Author: Budi Hartono, Bhery
Aditya Saputra
Journal Code: jptindustrigg120001
