Estimasi Prevalensi Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas dengan Metode Capture-Recapture
Abstrak: Accident is a global
health problem. In 2002 the major cause of accident leading to death is road
accident (22.8%). In 2003–2005 the number of road accidents in the Province of
Yogyakarta Special Territory is decreasing; however the fatality and ratio of
road accident and the number of victims are increasing. In Indonesia there are
two kinds of reporting made whenever there is a road accident. When the
accident is handled by the police, data are kept at the police office and
hospital; however, when it is not handled by the police, data are kept only at
the hospital, not at the police office. In the Province of Yogyakarta Special
Territory data of road accident are based on the report of Traffic Office of
Yogyakarta Special Territory Regional Police so that they may not reflect the
actual road accidents.
Objective: To estimate the prevalence of road accidents by combining data
sources from both the police and hospital at the Province of Yogyakarta Special
Territory 2006.
Method: This was a descriptive study with survey design. It was carried
out at the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory from May to August 2007.
Analysis was made using capture-recapture method. Data entry and calculation were
carried out using web-based computer program with Personal Home Page language
programming and the database was maintained in MySQL.
Result: There were as many as 1,721 data from 5 district police
office/big city police office and 5,422 data from 22 hospitals and there were
as many as 751 similar data. Data from the police office were 100% complete and
from hospitals were not as complete as those from the police office. Coverage
of data from the police office was 13.9% and from hospitals was 43,7%. The
result of the study showed that the prevalence of road accident based on data
from the police office was 51 per 100,000 people and from the hospital was 161
per 100,000 people; whereas the prevalence of the result of estimation using
capture-recapture method was 369 per 100,000 people (12,417 cases – 95%
CI:11.799-13.035) with highest prevalence for male of 16–25 years old, living
and having road accidents at Sleman District.
Conclusion: The estimation of the prevalence of road accident using
capture-recapture method at the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory in
2006 was 369 per 100,000 people, 2.28 times greater than data of hospitals and
7.2 times greater than data of the police office with under reporting as much
as 724% at the police office and 229% at hospitals.
Penulis: Sayekti Udi Utama,
Rahadyan Magetsari, Vitalis Pribadi
Kode Jurnal: jpkedokterandd080107