PROSPEK PERDAGANGAN KOPI ROBUSTA INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL
Abstract: This research aims to predict the trades of Indonesian coffee
in the international market for the next decade. This research used secondary
data, specifically the export volume of robusta coffee from 1975 to 2011. Forecasting
process was done by using the method of linear time series analysis with ARIMA
models. The results showed that the model for maximum export volume of robusta
coffee was Yt = Yt-1 + 6.646 – 0.5028 (Wt-1 – Wt-2) – 0,4134 (Wt-2 – Wt-3) +
et.. It was predicted in the next 10 years, from 2012 to 2021, the export volume
of the Indonesian coffee will increase. The growth of the export volume of
robusta coffee will be 1.6% each year. Finally, in 2021 the export volume of
robusta coffee will reach 493.295 tons.
Keyword: ARIM, Export, Forecasting, Robusta Coffee, Time
Series
Penulis: Devi Chandra, R. Hanung Ismono, Eka Kasymir
Kode Jurnal: jppertaniandd130065
