ANALISIS MODEL MONETER HARGA FLEKSIBEL DALAM PENENTUAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH
ABSTRACT: There are a wide
variety of monetary models of exchange rate determination, all of which are
outgrowth and extension of the basic flexible-price version pioneered by Frenkel
(1978) and Bilson (1978). The research aims to know and prove by empirical means
the flexible price monetary model is relevant and advantageous to explain the
fluctuation of exchange rate rupiah. The
methodology involves testing
first two assumption of the
monetary model, namely, the price arbitrage (unified goods market) and the
existence of a stable money demand function. Having these assumption held, the
estimation of fluctuation in exchange rate in 1997-2005 was estimated using the
flexible price monetary model developed for this purpose. Estimation of
fluctuation in exchange rate suggest that the actual behavior of exchange rate
in the period 1997 – 2005 is highly consistent with prediction of the flexible
price monetary model. Fluctuation in exchange rate of Indonesia was largely explained
by such variables as domestic money demand, domestic income and expected
inflation, consistent with hypothesis of the flexible price monetary model.
Keywords: the flexible price
monetary model, exchange rate, expected
inflation
Penulis: Endri
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd070060
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