Analysis of China's real estate prices and macroeconomy based on evolutionary co-spectral method

Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between the real estate market and the macroeconomic environment of China by use of dynamic coherence function based on co-spectral analysis.
Design/methodology/approach: Through a theoretical perspective, the dynamic interrelationship among economic variables at different time intervals (both long and short terms) is analyzed.
Findings: The empirical results show that China’s real estate market features a high coherence with the change of the long-term interest rate, employment rate and money supply, while there is a moderate coherence between the real estate market and the inflation rate and economic growth rate, and the coherence between the short-term rate of interest and the real estate market is the lowest.
Research implications: Previous researches have some shortcomings. They do not consider the dependence between nonlinear series, but the latter is crucial to avoid the deviation of results. In this paper, we proposed a new method of experience to overcome these shortcomings.
Originality/value: The paper provides a reasonable explanation accordingly to different coherences between the real estate market and the macroeconomic variables.
Keywords: Real estate; Macroeconomy; Dynamic coherence function; Monetary policy
Author: Juan Li, Xuemin Chen
Journal Code: jptindustrigg150069

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