Analysis of China's real estate prices and macroeconomy based on evolutionary co-spectral method
Abstract: This paper
investigates the dynamic interaction between the real estate market and the
macroeconomic environment of China by use of dynamic coherence function based
on co-spectral analysis.
Design/methodology/approach: Through a theoretical perspective, the
dynamic interrelationship among economic variables at different time intervals
(both long and short terms) is analyzed.
Findings: The empirical results show that China’s real estate market
features a high coherence with the change of the long-term interest rate,
employment rate and money supply, while there is a moderate coherence between
the real estate market and the inflation rate and economic growth rate, and the
coherence between the short-term rate of interest and the real estate market is
the lowest.
Research implications: Previous researches have some shortcomings. They
do not consider the dependence between nonlinear series, but the latter is
crucial to avoid the deviation of results. In this paper, we proposed a new
method of experience to overcome these shortcomings.
Originality/value: The paper provides a reasonable explanation
accordingly to different coherences between the real estate market and the
macroeconomic variables.
Author: Juan Li, Xuemin Chen
Journal Code: jptindustrigg150069
