Indonesian Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (IPCRC): An application for Predicting Prostate Cancer Risk (a Multicenter Study)
ABSTRACT: to develop a
prediction risk model of prostate cancer based on Indonesia population.
Methods: we included all benign prostate hyperthrophy (BPH) and PCa patients
who had prostate biopsy and prostatectomy nbetween January 2009 and December
2013 from 5 urology centers in Indonesia. The relationship between the possibility
of PCa with the following variables including: age; PSA level, prostate volume
(by transabdominal ultrasound or transrectal ultrasound) and digital rectal
examination (DRE) fnding. We calculated a predictive scoring equation to
predict the possibility of PCa using chi-square analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov
test, multiple logistic regression and ROC curve. Then, we designed an
application for predicting prostate cancer risk called Indonesian Prostate
Cancer Risk Calculator (IPCRC). Results: there were 784 PCa and 1173 BPH
patients were used for developing the risk calculator in our study. The mean
ages, PSA and prostate volume are 66.9±8.1 years old; 72.4±248.9 ng/ml and
49.6±28.2 ml, respectively. Abnormal DRE was found in 637 PCa and 56 BPH. We included
age, PSA level, abnormal DRE fnding (all showed signifcant p<0.05 in
univariate model). Additionally, although not signifcant, we included prostate
volume (p=0.157) due to its clinical importance. The corrected ROC analysis
showed AUC 0.935, sensitivity of 90.1% and specifcity 80% in predicting the
prostate cancer in our population. Conclusion: we have developed the Indonesian
Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator which includes age, PSA, DRE, and prostate
volume as its variables. Future prospective study to validate the risk
calculator is needed.
Author: Prahara Yuri dkk
Journal Code: jpkedokterangg150254
