Spatial Model of Deforestation in Jambi Province for The Periode 1990–2011
Abstract: In the last 2
decades, deforestation had been an international issue due to its effect to
climate change. This study describes a spatial modelling for predicting
deforestation in Jambi Province. The main study objective was to find out the
best spatial model for predicting deforestation by considering the spatial
contexts. The main data used for the analysis were multitemporal Landsat TM
images acquired in 1990, 2000, and 2011, the existing land cover maps published
by the Ministry of Forestry, statistical data and ground truth. Prior to any other analyses, all districts
within the study area were classified into 2 typologies, i.e., low-rate and high-rate deforestation
districs on the basis of social and economic factors by using clustering
approaches. The spatial models of
deforestation were developed by using least-square methods. The study found
that the spatial model of deforestation for low-rate deforestation area is Logit (Deforestation) = -2.7046 – 0.000397*JH90(distance
from forest edge) + 0.000002*JJ(distance from road) – 0.000111*JKBN90 (distance
from estate crop edge) + 0.000096 *JP90(distance from agricultural crop edge) +
0.044227*PDK90(population density) + 0.148187 *E(elevation) – 0.131178*S(slope);
while for the high-speed deforestation area is Logit (Deforestation) = 9.1727 –
0.000788*JH90(distance from forest edge) – 0.000065 *JJ(distance from road) –
0.000091*JKBN90(distance from estate crop edge) + 0.000005 *JP90(distance from
agricultural crop edge) – 0.070372*PDK90(population density) +
11.268539*E(elevation) – 1.495198*S(slope). The low-rate and high-rate
deforestation models had relatively good ROC (Relative Operating
Characteristics) values of 91.32% and 99.08%, respectively. The study concludes
that the deforestation rate was significantly affected by accessibility
(distance from forest edge, distance from estate crop edge, edge from
agricultural land), biophysical condition (elevation and slope) as well as
population density.
Author: Putu Ananta Wijaya, Muhammad
Buce Saleh, Tatang Tiryana
Journal Code: jpkehutanangg150019